Know your Foe (Part 2)

Sometimes great starting hands don't look so wonderful after the flop. Even great pockets often must be folded if the flop doesn't help them out. This notion is summed up in the saying "Fit or Fold".

Sometimes, knowing your opponents gives you an opportunity to win in spite less-than-stellar flop.

I recently went to a local poker room with a friend who is getting started at the game. We played a $2-$4 game. I noticed that many players would play with very marginal hands: Things like A2, K9, QT and so forth. I also noticed that several players would call to the river in the hopes of hitting their hand.

In one particular hand, I held AK in second-to-last position. One of the early position players bet, and a middle position player raised. His raise put him all-in, so I considered the possibility that he didn't have a great hand, but rather was using his last few chips to try and force a few people out. Given that line of reasoning, I reraised. This caused the button to fold (rather than call 3 bets), leaving me on the button. This strategy is known as "buying the button".

The flop came 379 rainbow (three different suits). Now, there's a chance that one of the blinds could have been playing 68 or 8T for a straight draw. If there would have been two or three of the same suit (especially if I didn't have that suit) there would have been a great chance that someone was on a flush draw. Playing overcards that miss the flop often isn't a good idea in this case. For example, if there were a heart flush draw on the board, the ace or king of hearts would help my opponents much more than they would help my AK pocket.

Even though it's often not a great strategy to play overcards that miss the flop, I had two things going for me: I was in last position (so I could see what the other guys did before I had to act), and I had a great read on several of the people still in the hand.

By "great read" I mean I could recognize a combination of body language and betting patterns that reveal how strong their hands are. Most of the people still in the hand would check and call to try and improve their hands, but none of them had check-raised in the time I was at the table. They also tended to bet as soon as they made a hand.

I watched each player pause for a moment, then check to me. It seemed that perhaps someone was on a draw, but no one had a made hand. Rather than allow any drawers a free card, I bet out from last position and all called.

The turn brought a J. Now I thought, given these players, it was more than possible that one of them had a jack. However, all checked to me again. Their body language told me they were still trying to hit a card, and their betting patterns (learned from previous hands) reinforced that opinion.

The river was another J. Now, if they had not hit the J on the turn, the J on the river likely didn't help either. There was a possibility that someone did hit a pair of J's on the turn and wasn't confident that it was a winner given MY betting, so given the small chance of a check-raise on the river, I simply checked as well (against different players the chances of a check-raise would have been much higher).

My AK stood up and I took down a substantial pot. I was only able to play that far and ultimately win because I had carefully observed how my opponents behave, both in terms of body language and in terms of betting patterns. Without that knowledge, I would have had to fold AK after the flop.