The Short and the Long of it

Poker is a game of short-term luck and of long-term skill.

Your results can fluctuate quite a bit over a session, or even over several sessions. However, over time your profit depends on the difference between your skill and the skill of your opponents. Cards average out in the long run.

It hit me this afternoon how strongly short-term luck can impact your game. I had a fairly rare losing session today, even though I'm pretty sure I didn't make any major errors. I kept getting cards like 85, 73, A2, Q3 and folding them as proper strategy dictates. With astounding regularity, I would have flopped two pair or better had I held the bad cards (I would have flopped a straight with the A2). Does that mean I should have adjusted my play based on that "streak"? NO WAY. It was just a run of unusual events. The cards are dealt perfectly randomly and I still would have the same low chance of winning with a pocket like 85 that I would have any other night.

The few big hands I got reinforced tonight's lesson. I hit the nut straight on the turn, only to lose to a flush on the river. I hit a king-high flush, only to lose to a full house. Just before I left, my K9 lost a kicker war to KQ (meaning we both had KK, and his Q was higher than my 9). Should I have folded my ut straight or king-high flush? NO WAY. I just got unlucky. It happens.

One of the players at the table raised AK before the flop and held on all the way to the river, even though the board showed T8754. She remarked "the book says to raise that pocket." Should she have not raised before the flop? NO WAY. Sometimes you lose with great starting cards (and sometimes you need to fold them when the flop completely misses you, even if you raised before the flop).

Keep working on your skill, and don't sweat the fluctuations that are part of the game of poker.