The River Giveth, and the River Taketh Away

Professional poker players constantly evaluate their cards, the cards on the board, the chances of having or drawing to the best hand, and the odds of ending up with the best hand compared to the bet required to keep playing a hand. They will make a rational decision to continue or fold based on all of those factors.

Low-limit players don't usually play that way.

They will keep drawing "on a hunch", or perhaps just in ignorance of the odds against them. Many players complain that they are always getting drawn out on, with the opponent hitting a miracle card on the river. In fact, that happened to me just last night.

I played JJ, and got another J on the flop of 5JK. I bet my trips, knocking out all but one player. One player called my bet. The turn was a Q. I began to worry about the other guy having AT for a straight. Still, I bet and he called. He didn't think he had me beat (or he would have raised) but didn't want to fold either. Then the river showed an A for a board of:

5JKQA

Any T would make a straight, beating my trips. I bet, and he raised. He could have been bluffing so I called, but asked "You have the ten?" to which he showed TT.

After the flop, with two overcards to his TT and a bet out, he should reasonably have assumed he's behind at that point. Only two cards could reasonably improve his hand, the other tens. There were 6 small bets (= 3 big bets) in the pot before the flop. After the flop, I made a small bet (total of 7 small bets). He had to call 1 small bet to continue. So, the pot odds for him were

7:1 pot odds

To improve his hand, he needed one of the remaining tens: 45 non-helpful cards remaining and 2 helpful cards remaining, so the odds of hitting a helpful card was 45:2, or

22.5:1 improvement odds

He was not getting nearly large enough pot odds to compensate for the 22.5:1 chance of improving his hand. Even if he thought there was a 50% chance I was bluffing, and he had the best cards, the odds against him were still 11.25:1.

When the turn hit, the math changed (remember... pros evaluate the profitability of a situation every time it changes). After his flop call, there were 8 small bets, or 4 big bets, in the pot. I made another big bet. He had to call one big bet to win 5 big bets

5:1 pot odds

My bet made a call for him relatively less profitable for him than after the flop. However, the "lucky" card gave him 4 more outs, the four aces. 46 cards remain, 40 are not helpful and 6 are helpful. This yields 40:6 or about

6.67:1 improvement odds

Although less of a longshot than after the flop, if he would repeat the situation 1000 times over and over, he would lose money in the long run.

In this case he did get lucky and hit a winning hand on the river. Did this upset me?

NO!

In fact, this is EXACTLY what I like to see. The math is simple, for every dollar I lose to a lucky draw-out, I make more than one dollar in profit when that miracle card doesn't come on the river. I love playing in games where I occasionally get beaten like this, because it means the other players don't understand when it's in their best interest to keep betting, and when it's best for them to fold.

Understanding Pot Odds

Let's say we're betting at "coin flip." I flip a quarter. If it comes up heads, I pay you $1. If it comes up tails, you pay me $1. This is an even game, and if we play for a long time, most likely neither of us will be up much.

Now let's change the game to "die roll." I roll a die. If it comes up 6, I pay you $1. If it comes up any other number, you pay me $1. This game is unbalanced, and if we play for a long time, you will go broke.

This is the same situation as when your opponent keeps drawing to miracle cards. Just like you can't roll enough 6's to break even in "die roll", they can't hit enough miracle cards to break even against you.

If they want to keep drawing against the odds, be happy. If you want to play "die roll" leave me a note here ;-)

Heads-up!

I recently discovered the heads-up mini tournaments on Full Tilt and am enjoying them greatly - and profiting in the process.

In any regular tournament or sit-and-go, you eventually have to play one-on-one to win first place. Playing with just a few players in the game is very different than playing at a full table. Full Tilt (and I suspect other poker websites) have put together a special one-on-one, winner-take-all tournament format. Each player starts with 1500 chips, and the one to take all chips wins the entire prize pool.

The game has been profitable for me because most players I encounter don't adjust their strategy for the heads-up game. In a normal game, it makes sense to wait for a good starting hand. Heads-up, if you try to wait for good cards the blinds will eat you up (since you post either the small bline or big blind every hand). It pays to play otherwise marginal hands strongly, and to bluff quite a bit.

I found that it works well to fold a few poor hands early on to give the other guy the feeling that it's OK to fold and that you are a soft player. Then, once that trap is set, I bet most hands pretty aggressively at least to the flop. If the other guy calls or raises you often, you will have to stop being quite so aggressive with poor hands. However, most players I meet online are intimidated and fold often enough for the bluff opening bets to be very profitable.

At first I had trouble getting people to call my bigger bets when I hit a really good hand. It turns out using their own aggressive tendencies against them works best for me. I simply let them bet when I have a really good hand, calling them down to the river where I suddenly reraise. This works well when I hit a straight or flush. I have also used the tactic with trips, but letting things go to the river sometimes backfires if they hit a straight or flush. Watch the board, and if there's a possibility of a straight or flush draw, bet trips hard to make the other guy's draw as expensive as possible.

Heads-up is an interesting way to play poker, one that replaces patience with heart-pounding aggression on amost every hand. Give it a try!

Player Type: Aggressor

When I join a new table, I am very careful about the hands I play. If dealt a top hand like AA or KK I'll certainly jump on, but otherwise I like to observe a hand or two to see how the other player's act.

Last time I played, one player stood out after just a few rounds. He raised and reraised most pots aggressively, with what turned out to be mediocre cards. Many of the players at the table were intimidated, and his stake tripled in a few hours.

Every table except for me contributed to his growing chip stack.

I adjusted my strategy to play even a bit tighter than normal, folding marginal hands I might otherwise play and only seeing the turn if the flop fit my hand well. When I did hit my hand, I reraised his raises and capped his reraises. I won several large pots from him before too long. After a while, he figured out what was happening, and I started to be able to get him out of pots by playing aggressively myself. Once he began to fold to my counter-aggression, that put me in a position to begin to bluff him with lesser hands.

Although the loose aggressive player did well against the other passive players at the table, my tight aggressive play consistently took money from his growing pile.

Know your Foe (Part 2)

Sometimes great starting hands don't look so wonderful after the flop. Even great pockets often must be folded if the flop doesn't help them out. This notion is summed up in the saying "Fit or Fold".

Sometimes, knowing your opponents gives you an opportunity to win in spite less-than-stellar flop.

I recently went to a local poker room with a friend who is getting started at the game. We played a $2-$4 game. I noticed that many players would play with very marginal hands: Things like A2, K9, QT and so forth. I also noticed that several players would call to the river in the hopes of hitting their hand.

In one particular hand, I held AK in second-to-last position. One of the early position players bet, and a middle position player raised. His raise put him all-in, so I considered the possibility that he didn't have a great hand, but rather was using his last few chips to try and force a few people out. Given that line of reasoning, I reraised. This caused the button to fold (rather than call 3 bets), leaving me on the button. This strategy is known as "buying the button".

The flop came 379 rainbow (three different suits). Now, there's a chance that one of the blinds could have been playing 68 or 8T for a straight draw. If there would have been two or three of the same suit (especially if I didn't have that suit) there would have been a great chance that someone was on a flush draw. Playing overcards that miss the flop often isn't a good idea in this case. For example, if there were a heart flush draw on the board, the ace or king of hearts would help my opponents much more than they would help my AK pocket.

Even though it's often not a great strategy to play overcards that miss the flop, I had two things going for me: I was in last position (so I could see what the other guys did before I had to act), and I had a great read on several of the people still in the hand.

By "great read" I mean I could recognize a combination of body language and betting patterns that reveal how strong their hands are. Most of the people still in the hand would check and call to try and improve their hands, but none of them had check-raised in the time I was at the table. They also tended to bet as soon as they made a hand.

I watched each player pause for a moment, then check to me. It seemed that perhaps someone was on a draw, but no one had a made hand. Rather than allow any drawers a free card, I bet out from last position and all called.

The turn brought a J. Now I thought, given these players, it was more than possible that one of them had a jack. However, all checked to me again. Their body language told me they were still trying to hit a card, and their betting patterns (learned from previous hands) reinforced that opinion.

The river was another J. Now, if they had not hit the J on the turn, the J on the river likely didn't help either. There was a possibility that someone did hit a pair of J's on the turn and wasn't confident that it was a winner given MY betting, so given the small chance of a check-raise on the river, I simply checked as well (against different players the chances of a check-raise would have been much higher).

My AK stood up and I took down a substantial pot. I was only able to play that far and ultimately win because I had carefully observed how my opponents behave, both in terms of body language and in terms of betting patterns. Without that knowledge, I would have had to fold AK after the flop.