The Short and the Long of it

Poker is a game of short-term luck and of long-term skill.

Your results can fluctuate quite a bit over a session, or even over several sessions. However, over time your profit depends on the difference between your skill and the skill of your opponents. Cards average out in the long run.

It hit me this afternoon how strongly short-term luck can impact your game. I had a fairly rare losing session today, even though I'm pretty sure I didn't make any major errors. I kept getting cards like 85, 73, A2, Q3 and folding them as proper strategy dictates. With astounding regularity, I would have flopped two pair or better had I held the bad cards (I would have flopped a straight with the A2). Does that mean I should have adjusted my play based on that "streak"? NO WAY. It was just a run of unusual events. The cards are dealt perfectly randomly and I still would have the same low chance of winning with a pocket like 85 that I would have any other night.

The few big hands I got reinforced tonight's lesson. I hit the nut straight on the turn, only to lose to a flush on the river. I hit a king-high flush, only to lose to a full house. Just before I left, my K9 lost a kicker war to KQ (meaning we both had KK, and his Q was higher than my 9). Should I have folded my ut straight or king-high flush? NO WAY. I just got unlucky. It happens.

One of the players at the table raised AK before the flop and held on all the way to the river, even though the board showed T8754. She remarked "the book says to raise that pocket." Should she have not raised before the flop? NO WAY. Sometimes you lose with great starting cards (and sometimes you need to fold them when the flop completely misses you, even if you raised before the flop).

Keep working on your skill, and don't sweat the fluctuations that are part of the game of poker.

From Texas to Omaha

I grew up playing 5 card draw, but then went off to college and a career and didn't play for years. In the last few years my friends got me interested in Texas Hold'em, which I learned to play well enough to win consistently. Before yesterday, I had never played Omaha and had only a vague idea of how to play. The rest of this post will show why one basic poker concept is so important, and how they apply to most any form of poker.

Early Thanksgiving morning, I was just waking up and decided to play a bit of poker to wake up. There is always a game available online, so I pulled up my laptop and logged into Full Tilt. A tournament caught my eye: A freeroll (free to play) tournament with a $100 prize pool. 2700 people can play for free and the top 9 split the prize money. Groggy from just waking up, I figured a free tournament was just the right thing for me. There was a catch though: After signing up, I noticed the tournament was for Omaha Hold'em (did I mention I was groggy? :-)

With 25 minutes to go before he start, I googled the rules and basic strategy. Since I had only a short time to prepare, and had never played before, I only played the very best starting hands.

And I kept rising in the standings.

Many hands came along that I could not decide whether or not to play.

And I kept rising in the standings.

Some hands came along that were clearly excellent hands. I played them very aggressively.

And I kept rising in the standings.

A few hours into the tournament, only 81 of the original 2700 players were still in the tournament.

And I had the chip lead!

Ignorance of all but the most basic points of strategy forced me to play very tightly, and very aggressively. It's certainly not the most fun way to play, after all I watched many hands play out without me. But it was a very effective way to play.

This experience reinforced for me the importance of one of the most important rules of winning poker: Play only the very best hands, and take no prisoners when you do.

The tournament encouraged me to experiment with other forms of poker. Even if I do play mostly my traditional Texas variety, playing other games gives insight into poker that you would not otherwise gain. In Omaha, you get four cards in your pocket and must play the board with exactly two of those cards. Playing Omaha, you basically see every flop with the equivalent of six different pocket pairs each hand (since there are six ways to combine four cards). That gives great insight into how different pocket pairs can play the same flop.

Why do four cards make six pockets?

Call the cards A, B, C and D. The ways you can combine them are:
AB, AC, AD, BC, BD, and CD.

So how well did I place in the tournament? I came in 30th. However, I'll never know how well I could have done. Thanksgiving dinner was served when the tournament was down to 30 players, so I withdrew. After all, family is more important than poker. Right?

Know your Foe

Once you get past the basics, Poker is much more a game of people than a game of cards. By knowing how your opponents act in a given situation, you can make a good guess about when to lay off and when to lay into them.

When I play in a casino or card room, I take a small journal with me to record useful facts about the game. I write down the date, the stakes I am playing, how well I did, etc. The most important think I record, though, is the people I played against. Their mannerisms, tells, and play style are all important to remember from session to session. Just writing down the information seems to be enough for me to remember it for next time. Of course if needed I can always pull out the journal and look at it (preferably while I'm on a break).

Online play allows for even greater analysis of opponents. Most online games let you record your hand history in a file on your computer. You can then use shareware programs to analyze the hand history and present a portrait of the opponents you're playing against right now (assuming you have played against them in the past). I use Poker Tracker but there are many others out there (just google poker tracker).

Here's a trick to get more intel about your online opponents: Most sites will let you observe games without playing in them. You can add the hand history from observed games to your opponent database.

Remember, poker is a game of people played with cards. Know your foe.

Trips

Usually trips means having three cards of the same rank. Today, for me, it means having three children.

Please join me in welcoming Sydney, Alexis and Ryan to the world!

This week is dedicated to mom and babies. See you back here next week.

Aggression

I returned to the casino with my friend, having helped him fix the first major leak in his game (a leak is something about the way you play that causes you to lose chips you should have won). His big leak was playing too many hands, and going too far after the flop.

This time around, he played far fewer hands, and also did much better. He still did not come out on top, though. This time the biggest issue I noticed was aggression: How he responded to it in other players, and how he projected it himself.

In his first major hand, he was in late position with QT. One fellow raised from middle position, my friend called the raise as did most other players. The flop came Qxy (x and y are small cards). The previous raiser bet, and my friend called for a small bet. After all, he had top pair. The only likely way for him to be beat at this stage is if the raiser has AA, KK or maybe AQ (the game is generally passive, meaning people generally raise pre-flop only with very strong starting cards). The turn came and was a "junk" card (small card that could not help with a flush or straight). The previous raiser bet again, and I watched in frustration as my friend folded top pair, with no straight or flush draws on the board, with a huge pot. Then a Q came on the river, which would have made QQQ for him. Even without that queen, my friend would have won. The heavy bettor turned out to have JJ. My friend COULD have been beaten. The raiser/better could have held AA, KK, AQ or a small pocket pair that hit for a set. However, it was far from certain, and the pot was quite large. In that situation, it's better to risk losing a bet than risk losing a large pot. If there's a reasonable chance you could still win, call the last bet on the river if the pot is large.

That's an example of an aggressive player running you over and stealing a pot. You can also get into trouble when YOU are not aggressive when you should be.

Again my friend had good starting cards and the flop fit well, KK and a good kicker. The only other guy in the hand checked the flop, so my friend did too. Then came the turn, which did not help anyone. Again both players checked. Then came the river, and the other guy completed a straight draw against my friend's top pair. My friend gave it away. By not betting, the other guy got "free cards." If you have the best hand, or the probable best hand, bet it. Make the other guy pay if he wants to try to complete a drawing hand (straight or flush).

The leaks fixed in this playing session are:

• If you have a good chance to win the pot, stay in for one last bet on the river.
• If you have the probable best hand, bet it hard and make the other guy pay to stay in against you.