Friday, October 19, 2007

Play the Odds

I just lost a hand with pocket aces to a guy who had pocket queens, and hung around to the river in spite of my heavy betting... and caught a third queen on the river. Actually, the first 6 times I played pocket aces, I lost. This is NOT a probable outcome, but that's the thing about poker. Your short-term results can give you a false impression.

Pocket aces win about 40% of the time. My initial experience could have taught me never to play pocket aces, which would be a very bad lesson indeed.

Remain aware that you can have a run of bad (or good) luck with certain cards. Do not draw your own conclusions based on this short experience. Learn what is PROBABLE. In the long run, everything evens out and you will only win by playing the hands with a good probability of winning.

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